All Things Valley League

Phils Win NL East!

Sorry to stray off topic here, but I've waited 14 years for the Phillies to return to the playoffs....

                            

New York-Penn League Top Prospects

Baseball America's main posting on Wednesday, the top prospects of the New York-Penn League, did not have any former Valley Leaguers on the actual top 20 list, but two players were mentioned in Aaron Fitt's chat (subscription required).

The first mention is Josh Dew (Harrisonburg 06), fresh off a 0-1, 1.80, 15-save season. The question went like this:

" Q: Tom from Troy asks: Did Josh Dew get any consideration for the list? He is a reliever and a senior sign, but he put up fantastic numbers this summer.

A: Aaron Fitt: Dew was a terrific two-way player at Troy, and he's settled in nicely to a pitching-only pro career. His fastball sits around 90 with good sink, he throws strikes with his quality slider, and his low-three-quarters delivery has some deception. He also has a good professional frame. he's really just a two-pitch guy, though, and lacks overwhelming velocity, which limits his ceiling a bit."

The second player mentioned is Garrett Parcell (Covington 04), a 12th round 2007 draft pick of the Florida Marlins. He, like Dew, threw well in his pro debut, finishing at 4-1, 1.24, with 6 saves. The question went like this:

"Q: Ramp from Miami, Florida asks: Better reliever (sic) Steven Cishek or Garrett Parcell?  And who has the better stuff (sic)

A: Aaron Fitt: I'm a big fan of Stephen Cishek- he pitches at 93 and touches 95 with a lively fastball, he's got a tight slider and a decent little changeup. He's got better stuff, but Parcell also pitched well this summer- he uses a decent 12-to-6 curveball to get out of jams, and though his fastball is not overwhelming, he spots it well."

Once again, while it would obviously be better to have players on the top 20 lists, getting mentions in the chat as possible prospects is a close second.  Congrats to both Dew and Parcell!

#10A Starting Pitcher: Adam Kalafos

Time for a new list!

When I started researching pitchers, I was looking for a few important things: rate stats, like BB/9 (walks per 9 innings), K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings), WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), average against (what average hitters achieved against the pitcher), and ERA. Less important stats: wins and losses. I used wins and losses as a separater, not as a determining factor. Reason: run support affects wins and losses often more than the pitcher's ability does. The other mandatory ingredient for starters: they must be eligible for the ERA championship (one inning per team game played).

When I was looking at the best pitchers in the league, I found that it was tougher to choose the top 10 starters in the league than to pick the top hitters.  (In fact, it was so tough that I had to choose 11!) The differences between some of these pitchers are minuscule. So once again, we start a list with a caveat: these are my selections only, and they reflect my opinions. These eleven guys are not necessarily the best pitchers in the league, or have the best pro potential; they just had really good summer seasons in the Valley.

#10A: Adam Kalafos, Staunton, from Youngstown State

Adam, a rising senior at Youngstown State, threw very well for the Staunton Braves this summer, finishing at 5-1, 2.92 in 49 innings, with a 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, and .207 average against. Striking out 62 batters in 49 innings will usually grab some attention; in this case, it helped grab the #10A spot for starting pitchers.

Kalafos finished tied for 6th in the league in strikeouts, and 7th in opponent's batting average.

At Youngstown State, Adam finished his junior season at 4-7, 5.92 over 78 2/3 innings, with a 1.66 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, and 6.3 K/9. Before Youngstown State, Adam pitched at the Community College of Baltimore County-Catonsville, where he finished with a 2.48 ERA in 54 innings as a sophomore.

For the record, these two pitchers just missed the list:

11. Tommy Warner, Covington, from Kentucky: 5-1, 2.97, 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, .234 average against
12. Luke Greinke, Winchester, from Auburn: 3-1, 2.66, 1.34 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, .251 average against  (#2 hitter, #12 pitcher- pretty impressive!)

A Quick Note on Clint Robinson

Baseball America is in the midst of their top prospects in each league rundown, starting with the rookie-level leagues, the Gulf Coast League and the Arizona League, and ending with the triple-A leagues.  As usual, I follow the lists for any mentions of former Valley Leaguers.

The Gulf Coast League, Arizona League, and Appalachian League passed by with no mentions, which isn't surprising considering that most of the players in the GCL and Arizona are teenagers.

Then came the Pioneer League. In case you've forgotten, Clint Robinson (Harrisonburg 05-06) had a tremendous season for the Idaho Falls Chukars. His season went so well, in fact, that he was named the league MVP.  I was surprised, then, when his name did not appear on Ben Badler's list of top 20 prospects.  So, to make a long story short, I asked him about it in his chat.

"Q: John from Harrisonburg asks: Clint Robinson put up 336/388/593 numbers at Idaho Falls, and was the league MVP; how close was he to the top 20?

A: Ben Badler: A couple questions here about Robinson, and how despite his numbers and his league MVP award, he didn't crack the top 20. I'll answer those questions here. Robinson no doubt had a productive year and helped the Chukars win ball games, and his numbers look pretty, but let's take a closer look at those stats. First, Robinson is 22 years old, so he's old relative to his level. Yet he still walked in only seven percent of his plate appearances, and that rate will likely decline as he faces  more advanced pitching. Now, that rate was a little bit higher at Troy last year, but it's quite possible that he was just being pitched around. Also keep in mind that the Pioneer League is a hitter-friendly league, and within that league the Chukars play in a hitter-friendly park. You can even see that somewhat from his home/road splits (393/453/693 at home, 265/303/469 on the road). Add in that Robinson played most of the year at DH and not even at 1B due to his defensive limitations, and his value takes another hit. He had a fine year, but the numbers I care about are the ones that have predictive value, and based on that and the reports we got, I don't think the 25th rounder belongs in the top 20."

Well, now. One thing needs to be kept in mind: Baseball America is all about, as Badler put it, "predictive value." It must be maddening to college guys who go undrafted at 20 and 21 years of age, finally get a chance at 22, get assigned to a lower level, rake for a while, and then have their age held against them, so they are written off as a prospect. (Of course, to be fair, their advanced age might have a lot to do with that raking in the first place.)

And of course, Badler is right about the walk percentage and home/road splits, too. However, Clint told me in my interview that he was trying to see more pitches. His quote exactly?  "You know last summer in the Valley, after my junior year at Troy, I set a goal to go 1/1 K/BB ratio just so I could see more pitches and get something to drive and it has paid off ever since.  The K/BB ratio was just a tool to see if I was seeing pitches."

I suppose we'll see for sure next year, but I think Robinson has the ability to hit at a higher level.  I hope that he gets the chance!

#1 Hitting Season in the Valley: Jason Kipnis

Jason Kipnis, our #1, is a sophomore at Arizona State after transferring from Kentucky. As a freshman at UK in 2007, Jason hit 337/450/654 in 104 at-bats, showing little trouble adjusting to the college game.

Then he came to the Valley. Kipnis almost single-handedly drove the Covington Lumberjacks to the playoffs, putting up 318/498/591 numbers. In 154 at-bats over 47 games, he scored 46 runs, had 49 hits, 11 doubles, 2 triples, 9 home runs, 41 RBIs, an incredible 49/24 BB/K ratio, 9 hit-by-pitches, and 24 steals in 28 attempts for good measure.  He did this with little protection in the lineup. Jason was so locked in during the second half that he had 7 home runs after the All-Star game, in which he won the home run derby (batting as Kevin Bishop, or so the public address announcer insisted).

Kipnis finished eighth in the league in batting average, second in on-base percentage, second in slugging percentage, first in runs scored, second in RBIs, first in home runs (in the regular season- Jeremy Cruz tied him during the playoffs), second in total bases, and second in stolen bases (just one behind Spencer Wiggins).  That is a complete package; power, speed, and patience at the plate.  Both Baseball America and PG Crosschecker named him the #2 prospect in the league.

Well, here we are- all the way down to #1. While it wouldn't be possible to field a team with these ten guys, due to the large amount of outfielders and first basemen, these ten would make a potent lineup.  Three players from Winchester, two from Luray, and one each from Harrisonburg, Covington, Waynesboro, Haymarket, and New Market. Four first basemen, three outfielders, one catcher, one catcher/outfielder, and one middle infielder.  Where are the third basemen?

Thank you for indulging my need for lists!  The next list shall be (it is decreed) starting pitchers. More tough choices await us....

(Picture courtesy of Haymarket Joe)

#2 Hitting Season in the Valley: Luke Greinke

Here comes the first potentially controversial choice of my countdown- #2. Really, I could have listed a #1 and #1a, but I thought that I might as well stick my neck out, so to speak, and make a choice.

Luke had a monster year for Winchester, as evidenced by all the postseason awards. He was named Most Valuable Player, All-League as a utility player, the #1 prospect in both Baseball America and PG Crosschecker, and even had his mug grace the pages of Sports Illustrated.  That's some serious hardware.

Greinke's stats show why. He hit 417/517/642 in 120 at-bats for the Royals, with 25 runs, 50 hits, 12 doubles, 5 home runs, 32 RBIs, a 26/20 BB/K ratio, and 5 stolen bases.  He finished first in the league in batting average, first in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage, fifth in total bases, tied for seventh in hits, and tied for fourth in RBIs.  Wow.

Luke is preparing for his junior season at Auburn. He hit 286/347/321 in his freshman year, and followed with a 314/400/357 sophomore season. He hit one home run each year, but he made a swing adjustment this summer, and hit five home runs with wood bats. I am very interested to see how he might hit with the combination of his new swing and aluminum bats; we may see Luke drafted pretty high next June!

#3 Hitting Season in the Valley: Ryan Sontag

(We're back online this week- I think there'll be time enough to post!) 

The second Winchester Royal on my top ten list, Ryan Sontag, like Jose Cueto before him (#6 on the list), was a rock in the middle of the Royal lineup this summer.  He played in 30 games, and over his 119 at-bats hit an excellent 361/430/546. He scored 19 runs, had 43 hits, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 5 home runs, 32 RBIs, a 12/26 BB/K ratio, and 6 stolen bases. He finished tied for fourth in the league in RBIs, 2nd in batting average, 7th in on-base percentage, and 3rd in slugging percentage.

Ryan played at Michigan State as a freshman, hitting 349/467/463 in 149 at-bats. He was subsequently named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year. He transferred to Arizona State for his sophomore year, and hit 319/423/447 in 141 at-bats. In 2007, as a junior at ASU, Ryan finished at 345/415/448 in only 58 at-bats. 

For his heroics in the Valley last summer, Ryan was named the #8 prospect in the league by Nathan Rode of Baseball America. In his writeup, Rode says that Sontag profiles better as a #1 or #2 hitter in a lineup, and should make a good senior sign after this next college season in Arizona, even though he went undrafted after his junior season.

Coming soon: the most difficult decision yet- who had the top two hitting seasons in the 2007 Valley League?

Picture courtesy of Haymarket Joe

A Look Ahead to Fall Baseball

In the past year, major league baseball ran two fall leagues: the Arizona Fall League and Hawaii Winter Baseball. (Still no word on why in Arizona it's fall and in Hawaii it's winter.)  This year will be the same. Each major league club will send a few minor league players to gain more experience and exposure playing a short while in the offseason (in Hawaii's case, Japanese teams send a few players as well).

The preliminary  rosters for both leagues are now available: AFL rosters are here, while HWL rosters can be located here. These rosters are constantly in a state of flux; in fact, a few of the AFL teams haven't finalized their preliminary rosters yet.

At any rate, here are the ten former Valley Leaguers who appear on these early rosters:

Hawaii Winter League

Omar Aguilar (Covington 04), North Shore Honu

Daniel Murphy (Luray 05), Waikiki BeachBoys (Quick note here- I suppose the name comes from the obvious beaches in Waikiki, or even these guys, but when we were in Kenya, beach boys were annoying to a huge extent. They would come around to ask for money, to sell trinkets, or perhaps to steal something. Not all of them, of course, but enough to try to avoid them. Strange, to me, that a HWL team would want to known as the BeachBoys...)

Arizona Fall League

Chris Perez (Staunton 04), Mesa Solar Sox

Tommy Manzella (Waynesboro 03), Mesa Solar Sox

Jack Egbert (Winchester 03), Phoenix Desert Dogs (Check out his stats with the link; he had an excellent year at double-A Birmingham)

Paco Figueroa (Winchester 01), Phoenix Desert Dogs (Every vowel in his last name!)

Cliff Pennington (Harrisonburg 03), Phoenix Desert Dogs

Brett Gardner (New Market 03-04), Peoria Javelinas

Nick Pereira (Harrisonburg 04), Scottsdale Scorpions

Von Stertzbach (Staunton 00), Surprise Rafters

The AFL is played from October 9 through November 15; the HWL plays from September 29 through November 19.  I'll be following along...

#4 Hitting Season in the Valley: Robert Taylor

Now we're getting into rarefied air- #4 on the list of top hitting seasons in the 2007 Valley League season.  Robert Taylor, a rising senior at Arkansas-Little Rock, hit a ton for the Harrisonburg Turks in 2007, finishing the season at 352/420/500 in 122 at-bats.  Taylor finished the season with 22 runs, 14 RBIs, 6 doubles, 4 home runs, and a 14/24 BB/K ratio.  Among the league leaders, he finished 3rd in batting average, 9th in on-base percentage, and 5th in slugging percentage.

Taylor played at Laredo Community College as a freshman and sophomore, and then transferred to Arkansas-Little Rock as a junior.  He hit 297/341/485 as a junior, 414 with 12 home runs and 62 RBIs as a sophomore, and 297 with 14 home runs and 61 RBIs as a freshman. He was also selected in the 36th round in the 2006 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers- he obviously didn't sign.

Robert will attempt to prove his worth to major league scouts this spring; with any carryover from his excellent summer, he'll do just that.

             Taylor getting his ankle taped

Bricktown Letdown?

I know, I know- getting to watch the Triple-A Championship game should never be a letdown, but if anyone watched to see Valley League alums Brad Ziegler (New Market 00) and Wes Timmons (Winchester 00-01) play, they may have been disappointed.  Reason?  Ziegler did not pitch, and Timmons went 0-3.

At any rate, their respective teams won a league championship and played in the interestingly named "Bricktown Showdown."

To see the boxscore, click here, and for the writeup, here.  (Below: Timmons, left, and Ziegler)