All Things Valley League

Valley Leaguers Excel in World Series

If we go with small sample sizes, it looks like a Valley League alum must be World Series MVP! (I have small sample sizes on the brain this week. Last Thursday, a student of mine said that the Redskins would beat the Patriots because, and I quote, "The 'Skins are the only team that Tom Brady hasn't beaten." How many games, I asked, has Brady played against them?  "One."  Oof. I laughed out loud when I saw the score on Sunday...) (And by the way, I didn't look up that stat, so it may not even be true)

In 2006, the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series, 4 games to 1, over the Detroit Tigers. The MVP? David Eckstein, who hit 364/391/500 in 22 at-bats.  Eckstein played for the Harrisonburg Turks back in 1995 and 1996.

In the World Series that has just ended (mercifully so), Mike Lowell (Waynesboro 93) came away with the hardware. He hit 400/500/800 over 15 at-bats. (Sure, the MVP could have been Papelbon, Ellsbury, or even Beckett and Lester. Of course, none of those players played in the Valley League, so they weren't eligible.)

So... for next year, maybe Juan Pierre? Brandon Inge? Kouz? Adam Everett? Or maybe Lowell again?

In all seriousness, Lowell was a huge reason the Sox were as good as they were in 2007. He hit 324/378/501 in 589 at-bats, with 37 doubles, 21 home runs, and 120 RBIs. His BB/K ratio was an excellent 53/71 as well. 

The Sox were also helped by two other former VBLers: Kyle Snyder (Winchester 97) and Javier Lopez (New Market 96). Both pitched quite well out of the bullpen throughout the season.

To see the Valley League's release on this very subject, click here.

#2 Starting Pitcher: Rob Gilliam

And then there were two. The first Luray Wrangler on the top starter list, Rob Gilliam was one of the main reasons the Wranglers advanced to the finals against Waynesboro. Now a sophomore at UNC-Greensboro, Gilliam had a fantastic year in the Valley: he went 7-1, 1.26, with 1 save, a 0.96 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 12.8 K/9, and .175 opponent's batting average. In his 57 innings, Rob gave up 37 hits, 18 walks, and struck out a whopping 81 batters. He gave up only 8 earned runs and 2 home runs (one each to New Market's Nick Stanley and Harrisonburg's Brett Stewart).  Rob also consistently hit 92 mph on my radar gun- one of the highest readings for a starting pitcher that I saw all year.

He finished 1st in the league in ERA, 2nd in strikeouts, tied for 2nd in wins, 8th in innings pitched, tied for 2nd in shutouts, tied for 1st in complete games, and 2nd in opponent's batting average. 

His nine starts went like this:

June 6 at Winchester: 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 unearned run, 2 walks, 8 strikeouts, W, 9-2
June 13 at Harrisonburg: 5 shutout IP, 4 hits, 1 walk, 6 strikeouts, W, 1-0 (shortened by rain)
June 23 vs. Staunton: 5 2/3 shutout IP, 1 hit, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts, W, 3-0
June 30 vs. Covington: 5 shutout IP,  1 hit, 3 walks, 3 strikeouts, W, 6-2
July 5 vs. Harrisonburg: 5 IP, 7 hits, 6 runs (5 earned), 4 walks, 6 strikeouts, L, 6-4
July 14 vs. Woodstock: 6 shutout IP, 4 hits, 0 walks, 8 strikeouts, W, 6-0
July 20 vs. New Market: 9 IP, 2 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk, 16 strikeouts, W, 3-2
July 27 at Woodstock: 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 unearned run, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts, W, 6-1
August 2 vs. Front Royal: 4 1/3 IP, 6 hits, 1 earned run, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, W, 7-1

Luray won 8 of his 9 starts, he had only one start where he gave up more than 2 earned runs, and he struck out more batters than innings pitched in 7 of his 9 starts. His masterpiece is obviously this game, July 20th vs. New Market. Rob gave up a 2-run home run to Nick Stanley with 2 outs in the top of the ninth to tie the game, only to have his teammate, Brett Bowen, single in the winning run in the bottom of the 9th. More telling, Gilliam got 16 of the 27 outs by strikeout. 

Gilliam was unable to take the mound in he championship series against Waynesboro because of a sore arm.

In his freshman year at UNC-Greensboro, Gilliam went 2-1, 6.91, with a 1.58 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and 8.2 K/9.  Hopefully his arm is sound, and  Rob can build off his monster season in Luray!

(Picture courtesy of Haymarket Joe)

Kouzmanoff Named a Top Rookie

After every season, Baseball America names the top 20 rookies in the major leagues. This year, a Valley Leaguer made the list at #10: Kevin Kouzmanoff (Winchester 02).

I covered Kouz ad infinitum this spring, and yes, as Eliot expected, I won Kouz in our fantasy auction (El told me to go ahead and write him on my board even before the draft; he was THAT certain I would get him), but this is the first time the Crushin' Russian has received post-season recognition for his play in the majors.

The writeup for Kouz went like this:

"The Padres were looking for help after Kouzmanoff's poor first half, which included a .228 average. By September, he was their hottest hitter, sometimes batting third. His defense at third base (22 errors) and modest tools cloud his long-term role, but his bat gives him a chance to overachieve."

The general consensus seems to be that Kouz is just keeping third warm until Chase Headley is ready for the job, but I think Kouz can carve out a decent career if he continues to hit.

The whole list:

1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston
4. Chris Young, Arizona
5. Hunter Pence, Houston
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston
7. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
8. Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore
9. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego
11. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee
12. Brain Bannister, Kansas City
13. Delmon Young, Tampa Bay
14. Mark Reynolds, Arizona
15. Joakim Soria, Kansas City
16. Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia
17. Alex Gordon, Kansas City
18. Micah Owings, Arizona
19. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta
20. Josh Hamilton, Cincinnati

And We're Off!

If any of you out there are teachers, you know how the school year can get. It's a never ending stream of lesson plans, papers to grade, books to read... it's tough to find time to relax during the school year.

Well, we've just reached the end of the first quarter. Since we have Friday off, we're heading off for a quiet family weekend, trying to get some of that ever-elusive time to cool down.  No computer, no phone, just the family.

Therefore, I won't be posting until Monday morning. Don't worry, I'm not lying in a ditch somewhere; I'll be back!

Pacific Coast League Top Prospects

In Baseball America's last list of prospects, the Pacific Coast League, no former Valley Leaguers made the top 20, but two former players were named in Matt Eddy's chat (subscription required): Chris Carter (Waynesboro 01) and Joe Koshansky (Staunton 02-03).

Carter first:

"Q:  Sean from Seattle asks: Was Chris Carter anywhere near making this list?

A: Matt Eddy: Carter elicited one of the funniest comments I received in researching this list. According to one scout, Carter has goofy actions and a goofy body. He's a well below-average fielder at first base and doesn't offer a ton of power, but Carter has a great batting eye and a great feel for hitting. He sounds like a good part-time DH."

and Koshansky:

"Q: Adam W. from New York City asks: Another solid Rockies power hitter- Joe Koshansky. Where does he fit in with that team? Trade-bait for more pitching?

A: Matt Eddy: Koshansky is a grinder with a solid offensive approach, but observers wondered if he has enough bat to be a big league regular at first base. His bat is a bit slow and his swing is long."

So, while the answers are not exactly "He's going to be a big league all-star," it's still a positive that both Carter and Koshansky warranted comments, "goofy" or not...

#3 Starting Pitcher: Tim Wheeler

Showing why Harrisonburg finished second in the regular season, Tim Wheeler, a junior at Troy, is the third Turk to make the top ten starter list. He had the best stats of the three, as he finished 3-4, 1.76, with a 1.02 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, and .228 opponent's batting average over 9 starts and 51 innings. Tim finished third in the league in ERA and ninth in the league in opponent's batting average.

Wheeler had the lowest BB/9 this side of Jon Dages, and struck out just under a batter an inning (48 K's in 51 innings). His four losses were by the scores of 5-1 (Tim gave up 2 earned runs), 3-1, 3-0, and 4-3 (2 earned runs). For those keeping score at home, that's a total of 5 runs of support in 4 losses.

Wheeler pitched mostly in relief at Troy as a sophomore, going 4-1, 5.66, with 1 save, a 1.49 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and 9.6 K/9. He pitched in 30 games, but started only 6.  (I can find no information about Tim's freshman year- anyone out there have any information?)

Troy players who have played in the Valley League have had good success at getting drafted- in the 2007 draft, Clint Robinson went in the 25th round, and Josh Dew went in the 14th. Maybe Tim Wheeler can add to that list...

Texas League Top Prospects

The Valley League placed another member on Baseball America's Texas League top prospect list: Chris Perez (Staunton 04). Chris, a 1st round supplemental draft pick in 2006, had an excellent season for Springfield in the Texas League; so much so that he was promoted to Triple-A Memphis during the year.

Perez's stats at Springfield look like this: 2-0, 2.43, with 27 saves, a 1.11 WHIP, 6.2 BB/9, and 13.7 K/9.  This is what BA wrote about him (subscription required):

"The Cardinals were looking for a reliever who could move quickly through their organization when they took Perez with a supplemental first-round pick in 2006, and he looked up to the job this season. He won universal acclaim as the best reliever in the league before moving up to Triple-A at the end of July.

"He could have pitched in the big leagues this year," [Corpus Christi manager Dave] Clark said.

Perez blew his first save opportunity in Springfield, then converted 27 straight with a 95-mph fastball and a wicked slider. His fastball has good sink, and his slider was an effective weapon against righthanders.

Command is the only issue for Perez going forward. He was able to work his way out of jams in the TL, but he'll have to cut down on his walks to have success in the big leagues."

If Perez continues his dominance out of the bullpen, he will easily be the first Valley Leaguer from the 2006 draft to make the majors. Stephen Faris (New Market 04) also pitched in Triple-A in 2007, but he spent most of his season in low-A ball in Fort Wayne.

It's Never Too Early...

Kind of like stores putting out Christmas decorations in September, it's never too early to talk about the next major league draft.

In the last Baseball America "Ask BA" installment on October 12, Jim Callis discusses power-hitting college first basemen. You know what that means: Yonder Alonso (Luray 06)!

Here's the entry:

"It looks like there will be several power-hitting college first basemen available in the 2008 draft. How would you compare South Carolina's Justin Smoak, Miami's Yonder Alonso, Arizona State's Brett Wallace and Wake Forest's Allan Dykstra in terms of draft value? Are there any others out there not on this list who we should know about?

James Larsen
Redlands, Calif.

James named the four college first basemen who have a chance to go in the first round of the 2008 draft, though Wallace and Dykstra are more sandwich picks than true first-rounders. Smoak is a candidate to go No. 1 overall, while Alonso likely will fit into the middle of the first round. Eric Hosmer (Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.) headlines the class of high school first basemen and could go ahead of Smoak.

We presented detailed scouting reports on all four players as part of our summer league coverage. Here's what we said [about Alonso]:

Yonder Alonso, 1b, Brewster (No. 2, Cape Cod)

Alonso was the consensus choice as the Cape's top all-around hitter. He had the best approach in the league, and it was tested when the Whitecaps lost all of their other power threats to injuries and early departures. Alonso remained patient and continued to use the whole field, finishing with league highs in walks (36) and on-base percentage (.468) while hitting .338.

"He's more than a power bat," a second NL scouting director said. "He's a hitter with power, so that's all the better. He's pretty advanced."

Alonso has a loose, compact stroke and excellent balance, and most of his current power comes in the form of line drives to the gaps. He should become more of a home run threat once he turns on and lifts more pitches. He's a below-average athlete who could work harder on his conditioning and defense, and even then he probably still will be limited to first base."

In the 2006 draft two years ago, Chris Perez was a supplemental first rounder (#42 overall) of the St. Louis Cardinals. Last June, Tony Thomas, in the third round, was the highest Valley Leaguer taken. Next June may see Alonso go as the highest VL pick in the last three years.

Looking at Preseason Predictions

Back on March 29th, I compared three different prediction systems by looking at former Valley Leaguers in the major leagues.  The three systems were HQ (Ron Shandler), BP (Baseball Prospectus), and ZIPS (Baseball Primer). Now that the season is all but over (what's going on in Colorado?!?), let's see which system did the best.  (Keep in mind that this is the epitome of a tiny sample size!)

David Eckstein (Harrisonburg 1995,1996)

HQ:    .272/.320/.338; 10 SB

BP:     .276/.336/.346; 8 SB

ZIPS:   .282/.346/.346; 7 SB

ACTUAL: .309/.356/.382; 10 SB  WINNER: ZIPS was closest on the averages

Adam Everett (Winchester 1996)

HQ:     .247/.289/.363; 12 SB

BP:     .254/.303/.384; 11 SB

ZIPS:  .241/.287/.339; 9 SB

ACTUAL: .232/.281/.318; 4 SB (only played in 66 games) WINNER: ZIPS on averages

Aubrey Huff (Staunton 1997)

HQ:    .292/.356/.493; 25 HR, 93 RBI

BP:    .273/.337/.447; 18 HR, 73 RBI

ZIPS: 281/.348/.474; 23 HR, 83 RBI

ACTUAL: .280/.337/.442; 15 HR, 72 RBI  WINNER: BP nailed OBP and SLG

Brandon Inge (Waynesboro 1996)

HQ:    .258/.316/.438; 22 HR, 79 RBI

BP:     .261/.327/.444; 20 HR, 73 RBI

ZIPS: .255/.320/.441; 20 HR, 78 RBI

ACTUAL: .236/.312/.376; 14 HR, 71 RBI  WINNER: HQ was closest to OBP and SLG

Kevin Kouzmanoff (Winchester 2002)

HQ:    .279/.337/.456; 5 HR, 25 RBI (not projecting more than 129 AB)

BP:     .291/.348/.500; 30 2B, 22 HR, 82 RBI

ZIPS:    .279/.334/.452; 17 2B, 11 HR, 41 RBI

ACTUAL: .275/.329/.457; 30 2B, 18 HR, 74 RBI WINNER: BP nailed the doubles, and was closest on HRs and RBIs

Mike Lowell (Waynesboro 1993)

HQ:    .290/.349/.470; 18 HR, 75 RBI

BP:     .272/.332/439; 34 2B, 16 HR, 76 RBI

ZIPS: .277/.342/.465; 46 2B, 18 HR, 85 RBI

ACTUAL: .324/.378/.501; 37 2B, 21 HR, 120 RBI  WINNER: HQ got closest to averages, but all three missed the RBIs by at least 35

Juan Pierre (Harrisonburg 1997)

HQ:    .302/.339/.389; 60 SB

BP:    .291/.338/.374; 45 SB

ZIPS: .299/.342/.385; 45 SB

ACTUAL: .293/.331/.353; 64 SB  WINNER: BP closest on rates, HQ almost nailed SB

Chad Tracy (Staunton 1999)

HQ:    .277/.333/.453; 19 HR, 74 RBI

BP:    .289/.353/.499; 36 2B, 25 HR, 89 RBI

ZIPS: .286/.349/.465; 37 2B, 19 HR, 75 RBI

ACTUAL: .264/.346/.454; 18 2B, 7 HR, 35 RBI (only 76 games played)  WINNER: HQ closest on AVG, SLG

Conclusion: Lowell had a wonderful year, Eckstein was good, Kouzmanoff was good considering he plays in PETCO, and Pierre hit .293 (an empty .293, but .293 nonetheless).  Tracy and Everett didn't play full seasons, Huff was just ok, and Inge struggled.

HQ won 3 1/2, BP 2 1/2, and ZIPS 2. We certainly can't say that one prediction system was significantly better than the others (after looking at only 8 players, anyway). Well, I titled my original post "Just for Fun," so that's how we should take this- just as interesting numbers to look at, nothing to draw any conclusions from. 

A Few Short Videos

I've been waiting to post these videos for a long, long time.  Anna Kipps is one of New Market's biggest fans. She helps administer the "New Market Rebels" facebook group, and she has posted some very funny videos on youtube.

These are my favorite videos from Anna's youtube account. (To see them all, click here)   The New Market bullpen has a reputation for having some fun during the long summer evenings...

First, bullpen macarena; second, pop-up bullpen; and third, whack-a-mole bullpen!