So Who's the Half Season MVP?

So we know Adam Liberatore would win the half-season Cy Young according to Bill James' Cy Young Predictor.  Assuming that the MVP needs to be a non-pitcher (I know, I know, assuming is bad), how do we decide who wins?

Many folks define the MVP as the best hitters on the best teams.  According to that theory, our MVP pool would include the following:

• Derrick Washington and Marcus Ndiffer from Covington
• Ryan Gauck from Fauquier
• Jeff Jefferson from Luray
• Brandon Sizemore, Evan Webb, and Mark Dvoroznak from Waynesboro
• Mickey Wiswall, Tyler Townsend, and Kyle Galbraith from Winchester

Of course, that ignores, for example, Andre Dawson, who won the MVP for the last-place Chicago Cubs in 1987.  In the VBL, that would ignore the following:

• Jesse Henry from Front Royal
• Drew Johnson from Harrisonburg
• David Herbek from Haymarket
• Kevin Dietrich from New Market
• Max Most and Bryon Izzo from Staunton
• Cody Brown, Greg Waddell, Nick Adelberto Adalberto Santos, and Brad Roberts from Woodstock

Similar to the same way Bill James came up with the Cy Young Predictor, Baseball Prospectus, in this article from December 2001, analyzed the voting in the National League to look for similarities in how the MVPs are chosen by sportswriters, and what variables have more weight.

This is what the author, Chaim Bloom, found:

"Specifically, [Bloom's] NL MVP predictor assigns one point each for the following:

    * Leading the league in runs batted in.
    * Leading the league in batting average.
    * Leading the league in home runs.
    * Driving in 100 runs.
    * Having a .300 batting average.
    * Playing for a division- or league-winning team.
    * Playing an up-the-middle position for a division or league winner.

Total those points for all players; those with the most points are the candidates. If there's more than one candidate, sum their batting average, RBIs, and home runs, and add a bonus (15 points) for playing an up-the-middle position and/or playing for a division winner. That's it. That's going to give you your MVP."

Well, now- that's interesting.  Leading the league in RBIs, average, home runs, having a .300 average all work for our purposes, while driving in 100 runs will never work (of course, if a player in the Valley League ever does drive in 100 runs in 44 games, can we just agree that he's the MVP?), and playing for winning teams will have to wait until the end of the year.

(And the normal caveat applies here- RBIs usually have more to do with opportunities than actual ability, and batting averages can vary wildly. I would rather look at on-base percentage and slugging percentage, but this exercise is looking at historical voting by actual sportswriters.)

So what do we have in he Valley League? (Stats through July 2)

• Wiswall leads the league with 24 RBIs
• Wiswall leads the league with a .390 average
• Jefferson leads the league with 6 home runs
• Both of our candidates are hitting over .300

Winchester's Mickey Wiswall has 3 points, while Luray's Jeff Jefferson has 2.

Let's move to the next stage for our two candidates: totaling batting average, RBIs, and home runs:

• Wiswall: 390+4+24= 418
• Jefferson: 344+6+16= 366

This method causes a few players to just miss. The first is Waynesboro's Brandon Sizemore. He's hitting 361 with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs, and he's playing 2nd base, which would give him 397 points.  Woodstock's Cody Brown is hitting 386 with 0 home runs and 11 RBIs for a total of 397 points. Harrisonburg's Drew Johnson is hitting 368 with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs for a total of 385 points. However, none of these players lead the league in any of the main categories, so they didn't make the initial cut.

Therefore, our half season MVP is Mickey Wiswall!

Whew!  While this exercise is really only for fun, it does give us some insights into the top players in the league, as actual sportswriters would see the situation.

Comments

[bigfan03]

Who is Nick Adelberto you have listed for the Woodstock? I think you have the name wrong.

[JohnLL]

Yeah, I missed that one pretty badly. Not sure what I was thinking of, but I'll go fix it. JLL