The Cy Young Predictor

We're nearing the half way point of the Valley League season, and we all know what this means: the all-star game, and ATVL's Cy Young Predictor and half-season MVP. Today, we'll tackle this question- if the season ended today, who would be voted the best pitcher?

To answer this question, ATVL uses the Cy Young Predictor, invented by Bill James and Rob Neyer. This formula does NOT automatically pick the best pitcher- you know, the guy with the best stuff or best chance to make the majors. It picks who would be voted the best, based on statistics. These statistics include wins, saves, and strikeouts. This means the voting will be slanted towards good teams.

Here's the formula:

Cy Young Points: ((5 * IP/9) - earned runs) + (strikeouts/12) + (saves * 2.5) + shutouts + ((wins * 6) - (losses * 2)) + victory bonus

(I have dropped the victory bonus for my purposes)

Here's the top 10 (Stats through July 5):

1. Aaron Swenson, Stan	43.47
2. Kyle Putnam, Fau	32.42
3. Ricky Marshall, Way	29.47
4. Drew Granier, Harr	27.72
5. Chris Sorce, Harr	27.31
6. Chris Enourato, Way	26.06
7. Chad Rothlin, Fau	24.61
8. Eric Alessio, NM	24.53
9. David Hayes, Fau	23.78
10. Ian Marshall, Wood	23.53

Swenson is leading Putnam by almost 25%. Here's the second ten:

11.Jake Brown, Lur	22.06
12. Grant Sasser, Hay	21.75
13. David Gibson, Stan	21.44
14. Corey Witkowski, Wood	21.44
15. Brian Burgess, NM	21.14
16. Matt Benedict, Hay	20.44
17. Ali Simpson, Harr	19.94
18. Heith Hatfield, Wood	19.69
19. Dan Rossignol, FR	19.53
20. Harrison Slutsky, Stan	18.44

So, according to the formula, our half-season Cy Young winner is Aaron Swenson!

Later this week, we'll discuss the half-season MVP- who do you think will win?

Comments

[VBL fan]

Interesting that Ricky Marshall does not even make the South All Star team!!!!!

[GeneralsSignGuyMike]

I am in shock just like the fan above. I can believe Swenson is the pitcher of the year right now, but no one in the past 2 weeks has played as good as Marshall, 15 shutout innings and counting and 4 great performances, the only bad performance was at NM because he was looking right directly in the sun and you knew it was bothering him each pitch. The Southern squad needs to add him this week.

[Jerry Carter]

Hey John,
Hope the vacation is going well! Wanted to mention that while no one is more dissapointed in the exclusion of Ricky than myself (O.K- maybe Ricky is), we have to remember that the gem he tossed at Woodstock on the 4TH of July came after the voting had taken place. This is part of a somewhat flawed system that has the team getting selected after the 15 game mark of the season.
We are hoping that Ricky will be added to the team or maybe selected to make the trip to Waldorf next Wednesday.

[GeneralsSignGuyMike]

A very good point Jerry made there too, I do hope Ricky is selected for the All Star game in Waldorf. Wow what a game he pitched in Woodstock too.