And now, the big gun.
Of all the former Valley League players I've covered over the three years this site has been in existence, not one matches Yonder Alonso's (Luray 06) ceiling. In ATVL's opinion, Alonso has a better chance for stardom than any other Valley League alum. Hopefully, more players will reach a state of stardom, but Alonso seems to have the best shot.
Baseball America certainly knows all about Alonso- they've been covering him pretty carefully ever since his junior year in college. Alonso was the 7th overall draft pick of the Cincinnati Reds in the 2008 draft, and he instantly became one of the best prospects in that system.
At this point, BA believes that he is #2 (subscription only).
Here is his scouting report:
Background: With the No. 7 overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Reds narrowed their choices to Alonso and Gordon Beckham. They chose Alonso in part because they considered him easier to sign, then watched Beckham sign more quickly for less money. While Beckham reached the big leagues in 2009, Alonso was slowed by a broken hamate bone.
Strengths: Alonso is the purest hitter in the system and has above-average power. He has a good understanding of the strike zone, working counts in his favor to get a pitch he wants. He has a balanced swing that allows him to drive the ball to all fields.
Weaknesses: Alonso has struggled to hit lefthanders in college and pro ball. Some scouts think he should be more aggressive, as he sometimes lays off pitches he could drive. His well-below-average speed (35 on the 20-80 scouting scale) limits him to first base. Cincinnati has toyed with playing him at third base, but his limited range would be a liability.
The Future: The hamate injury sapped Alonso's power and slowed down his timetable, postponing a difficult decision. He plays the same position as Joey Votto, the Reds' best big league hitter, and Cincinnati will either have to move Votto to left field or trade one of them. Alonso likely will spend all or most of 2010 in the minors, but his bat could hasten his path.
Go back up and read the "strengths" section again- impressive, eh? Just what major league organizations want. Assuming Yonder bounces back from his hamate injury, and there is no reason he shouldn't, he will force the Reds to make a difficult decision sooner or later.
Of course, Alonso showed up in JJ Cooper's chat as well. The question asks why Todd Frazier was named #1 over Alonso:
Andrew (Canada): Frazier over Alonso surprised me, In terms of pure upside would Alonso take the #1 spot?
J.J. Cooper: I figured some people would be surprised by the choice of Frazier No. 1, so I'll try to explain the thinking that went into it. Frazier's potential at the plate isn't far behind Alonso's. Alonso projects as a better hitter, but it's not by much. At this point, Frazier has a much longer track record than Alonso, partly because the hamate injury wiped out a good bit of Alonso's first pro season, so that's a minor argument for Frazier—we've seen more of what he can do. Frazier is a signficantly better runner than Alonso, which is again a minor point in his favor. But what it really came down to was Frazier's defensive versatility. Maybe Frazier can stick at second base long-term or maybe he can't, but there is little doubt he can play third base in the big leagues if the Reds would put him there full-time, and he can also be a corner outfielder if needed and even could play a game or two for them at shortstop if it was needed. Frazier can fill one of several holes for the Reds going forward. Alonso on the other hand is an adequate first baseman and there's not really another position for him, so all of his value is tied up in the bat. Alonso's bat may be a little better than Frazier's (he has more raw power and a swing that should hit for a tick more average), but Frazier's defensive value in my mind outweighed the differences at the plate.
