All Things Valley League

The Chase for the Playoffs

Last night, two games were played while three were rained out:

Fauquier @ Woodstock - Postponed      
Harrisonburg @ Winchester - Postponed    
Staunton @ Waynesboro - Waynesboro wins 8-4
Front Royal @ New Market - Postponed    
Covington @ Haymarket - Haymarket wins 4-1

Here are the updated standings, through Wednesday, July 23. I've combined the divisions to easier see where teams are:

                       Record  Pct. GB     Games Remaining                                   
1. Luray             28-10  .737            (6) Fauquier, @Woodstock, @Fauquier 2x, Woodstock, Waynes
2. Waynesboro   28-12  .700   1      (4) @Harrisonburg, Staunton, @Staunton, @Luray
3. Fauquier        23-15  .605    5      (6)  @Luray, Haymarket, Luray 2x, @Haymarket, @Woodstock
4. Winchester    22-17  .564    6.5    (5) Woodstock, @Front Royal, Harrisonburg, @Wood, FR
5. Staunton        23-18  .561   7.5    (3) @Waynesboro, @Covington, Waynesboro         
6. Covington       21-19  .525    9      (4) New Market, @New Market, Staunton, @Harrisonburg
7. Harrisonburg   16-23  .410  12.5    (5) Waynesboro, @Winchester, New Market, @New Market, Cov
8. Haymarket     16-24  .400   13      (4) Front Royal, @Fauquier, @Front Royal, Fauquier
9. Woodstock    14-25  .359   14.5   (5) @Winchester, Luray, Winchester, @Luray, Fauquier          
10. New Market  13-26  .333   15.5   (5) @Covington, Covington, @Harrisonburg, Harrisonburg, FR
11. Front Royal   12-27  .308   16.5   (5) @Haymarket, Winchester, Haymarket, @Winchester, @NM

Observations

• Woodstock has a tough, tough road ahead to catch either Harrisonburg or Haymarket for a last playoff spot. They have 5 games left, all against the top 4 teams. Anything can happen, obviously,  but this is a tough remaining schedule! (If Harrisonburg wins 2 of their remaining 5, Woodstock would have to win 4 of their 5 to tie. If Haymarket wins only 1 of their remaining 4, Woodstock would have to win 3 to tie.)
• Staunton has only 3 games remaining, which may help them get their rotation in order for the playoffs.
• Covington still has a shot to climb all the way from 6th to 3rd if they win out and the other games fall their way.
• Fauquier has a chance to make a move against Luray since they play 3 more times, but Luray will have to lose all their remaining games (not terribly likely for team that's 28-10).
• Luray is in the driver's seat in the loss column, as they have 2 less losses than Waynesboro. Watch that last game of the season, though! (Waynesboro at Luray)

Looking at the Standings

While it's pouring down rain here in the 'Burg, I thought it's time for a glance at the standings (through Tuesday, July 22nd):

South                                                         North
                       Record  Pct. GB                                      Record  Pct.  GB
1. Waynesboro  27-12  .692                        1. Luray           28-10  .737
2. Staunton       23-17  .575   4.5                 2. Fauquier      23-15  .605   5
3. Covington      21-18  .538   6                    3. Winchester  22-17  .564   6.5
4. Harrisonburg  16-23  .410   9.5                 4. Haymarket   15-24  .385  13.5
5. New Market   13-26  .333  14                   5. Woodstock  14-25  .359  14.5
                                                                 6. Front Royal  12-27  .308  16.5

The top three teams in each division have clinched the playoffs. The remaining races include the obvious race for higher seeds, and the race between the last five teams for the last two playoff spots.  Here is how that race looks:

                                  Pct    GB

1. Harrisonburg  16-23  .410
2. Haymarket    15-24  .385   1
3. Woodstock   14-25  .359   2
4. New Market  13-26  .333   3
5. Front Royal   12-27  .308  4

If the season ended last night, Haymarket would play Luray (#1) in the first round, while Harrisonburg would play Waynesboro (#2). The #3-#6 seeds are in turmoil at the moment. Fauquier would be #3, Staunton #4, Winchester #5, and Covington #6. Any of those could change very easily.

This should be a very interesting last week!

Today's the Day!

I'm soon going to leave the house and travel over to Luray for the rather exciting doubleheader between Vienna, the top team in the Clark Griffith League, and Waynesboro and Luray, the top two teams, record-wise, in the Valley League.

I will have a full writeup much later today- maybe even in the early hours of Wednesday- but look here for a complete rundown of the games!

(Also, just so you know, I will posting two interviews this week- the first one on Wednesday. And then I'll be gone for a few days again....)

A Look at the Standings

While I wait for the boxscores from Friday night, I was looking at the standings and noticed some interesting things...

South                                                         North
                       Record  Pct. GB                                      Record  Pct.  GB
1. Waynesboro  21-10  .677                         1. Luray         23-8    .741
2. Covington      18-13  .580   3                    2. Fauquier     17-12  .586   5
3. Staunton       16-15  .516   5                    3. Winchester 17-14  .548   6
4. Harrisonburg  11-19  .366   9.5                 4. Haymarket  13-18  .419  10
5. New Market   11-20  .354   10                  5. Woodstock 12-18  .400  10.5
                                                                 6. Front Royal 10-21  .322  13

The top three teams in each division plus the next two best records make the playoffs.  It looks like the playoff race is in three parts:

1. Waynesboro and Luray have all but wrapped up the top spots in each division. Yes, Covington and Fauquier have a shot to catch the front runner, but it's not too likely with the little bit of time remaining. Waynesboro and Luray have only 13 games remaining, which makes the climb steep indeed.

2. The top three spots are in the same position. Fourth place Harrisonburg is 4 1/2 games behind Staunton, while Haymarket is 4 behind Winchester.  Looks like Waynesboro, Covington, and Staunton are almost-locks in the South, while Luray, Fauquier, and Winchester are the same in the North.

3. The remaining part is the race for the last two spots. This could be the most interesting part of the pennant race.  In order:

                        GB
1. Haymarket  
2. Woodstock    .5
3. Harrisonburg  1.5
4. New Market    2
5. Front Royal    3

The top 8 teams will be seeded, regardless of division.  SO, all this to say that if the season ended today, this is how the first round would stack up:

1 Luray vs. 8 Woodstock
2 Waynesboro vs. 7 Haymarket
3 Fauquier vs. 6 Staunton
4 Covington vs. 5 Winchester

With Harrisonburg, New Market, and Front Royal just missing.

Now let's see how it all plays out!

Welcome to Rockbridge!

The Valley League has made it official: the Rockbridge Rapids, based in Lexington, will join the Valley League in 2009, making the league an even 12.

Here is the press release:

"Beginning with the 2009 season, the Valley Baseball League will field 12 teams with the addition of the Rockbridge Rapids.  The announcement was made in a special ceremony on Friday, July 11, 2008 in Lexington, Va.

The Rockbridge Rapids will be based in Lexington and will play home games under the newly installed lights at Cap’n Dick Smith Field on the historic campus of Washington and Lee University.  The name Rockbridge comes from Rockbridge County in Virginia, which includes the neighboring cities of Lexington and Buena Vista.

The addition of the Rapids will be the first for the Valley League since welcoming the Fauquier Gators as the 11th franchise for the 2007 season.  Fauquier moved to the league from the Clark Griffith League in Northern Virginia, meaning that Rockbridge will be the first newly-formed franchise to join the league since Woodstock and Loudoun County (now Haymarket) were welcomed in 2004.  With the addition, the league will have doubled in size from six to 12 teams since the beginning of the 2001 season.

The Rockbridge Rapids will compete in the South Division of the Valley League along with the Covington Lumberjacks, Harrisonburg Turks, New Market Rebels, Staunton Braves, and Waynesboro Generals.  The North Division will remain unchanged with the Fauquier Gators, Front Royal Cardinals, Haymarket Senators, Luray Wranglers, Winchester Royals, and Woodstock River Bandits.  The league currently plays a 44-game schedule beginning in early June or late May with playoffs beginning in the last week of July and extending into early August.

Constructed in 1999 at a cost of $1.8 million, Smith Field includes permanent seating for 350 spectators and plenty of lawn seating for fans.  It includes a 1,056 square foot building, which houses a press box, concession area and restrooms.  The facility also features sunken dugouts with bathrooms, water fountains, storage areas, two enclosed bullpens, a 2,340 square foot building with indoor hitting cages, and a state-of-the-art public address sound system.

The outfield fence measures eight-feet high, except in right field where it is 16 feet high.  The field is 400 feet to straight away center, 320 to right, 330 to left, 365 to right center and 370 to left center.  Beyond the left center field fence is a 36 foot long scoreboard.

The field is named in honor of Richard A. (Cap’n Dick) Smith, ’13, an outstanding Washington and Lee University Captain (1913), Baseball Coach (1922-1952) and Athletic Director (1921-1954).

The Valley Baseball League has been in existence since 1923.  The league became an NCAA-sanctioned league in 1961 and still operates under the same guidelines, although the NCAA no longer has direct involvement with summer leagues.  The league adopted wooden bats in 1993.  The VBL is funded in part by a grant from Major League Baseball and is a member of the National Alliance of College Summer Baseball, a national affiliation of summer leagues.  The league has produced well over 1,000 professional baseball players, including a record 79 former players drafted in the most recent Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft in June, 2008.

The Rockbridge team will be operated by Rockbridge Baseball Club, LLC, a Virginia Limited Liability Company.  The team has already begun assembling a coaching staff and players for the 2009 season and continues to actively seek host families and others who wish to be involved with the organization." 

This is Perhaps the Coolest Thing Ever

Each week, PG Crosschecker ranks the top summer league teams. I diligently report when a Valley League team makes the list, even though I sometimes feel cynical about it. Please don't misunderstand- it truly is a great honor to be listed among other teams from the Cape Cod League, Alaska League, or Northwoods League, but I have issues with the ranking of said teams. How can a league that will produce a dozen first round picks, the Cape Cod League, be ranked on the same list with the New England Collegiate League, that will most likely produce none?

Well, for the same reason I list the top 20 pitchers in my "Cy Young Predictor."  Because it's fun. Because we can notice when things are going well for certain teams, or pitchers, in certain leagues. Because someone took the time to compile records and put them in some kind of order.

But there's no way to empirically test these lists, right?

WRONG. And this is the coolest thing ever.

Next Tuesday, July 15, the #1 team on the list, the Vienna Senators from the Clark Griffith League, will travel to Luray to take on the top two teams in the Valley League in a doubleheader- the #5 Luray Wranglers and the #11 Waynesboro Generals.

The regularly scheduled game between Waynesboro and Luray will be postponed until July 28th so both teams can play Vienna.

Waynesboro will play at 4:00, and Luray will play immediately after the first game.

Just think- Waynesboro and Luray fans can come together and root for the same team!  Jerry Carter and I can openly cheer for a team, instead of staying impartial!  And most of all, even though it's just a game and the sample size is very small, the VBL can get a reading on how it might match up, however briefly, against a top team from another league.

I've cleared my schedule to attend- this may be the only time this kind of exhibition can take place!

Two VBL Articles

One of the fun things for me is to read other media outlet's takes on the Valley League on many topics, from players to umps to schedules.  Two such articles appeared in the last two weeks.

The first article was in the Daily News Record on June 23rd. Written by Dustin Dopriak, it covered the idea of starting the league a week or so later each year, so that more teams can have a full squad from the beginning. It includes quotes from Harrisonburg's Bob Wease, Woodstock's Stu Richardson, Luray's Mike Bocock, League President David Biery, and New Market's Bruce Alger.

As a side note, Biery also mentioned that it looks increasingly likely that Lexington will have a team by next year.

The second article, written by John Galle and posted on the Shenandoah Valley Herald online, traces the New Market Rebels' host family program (which I am very impressed with, by the way). The article includes quotes from Mona Wolfe, Bruce Alger, Jay Hafner, ATVL regular reader Melissa Dodge, and  Bob and Carol Lanham.

Both articles are must-reads for VBL fans!

So Who's the Half Season MVP?

So we know Adam Liberatore would win the half-season Cy Young according to Bill James' Cy Young Predictor.  Assuming that the MVP needs to be a non-pitcher (I know, I know, assuming is bad), how do we decide who wins?

Many folks define the MVP as the best hitters on the best teams.  According to that theory, our MVP pool would include the following:

• Derrick Washington and Marcus Ndiffer from Covington
• Ryan Gauck from Fauquier
• Jeff Jefferson from Luray
• Brandon Sizemore, Evan Webb, and Mark Dvoroznak from Waynesboro
• Mickey Wiswall, Tyler Townsend, and Kyle Galbraith from Winchester

Of course, that ignores, for example, Andre Dawson, who won the MVP for the last-place Chicago Cubs in 1987.  In the VBL, that would ignore the following:

• Jesse Henry from Front Royal
• Drew Johnson from Harrisonburg
• David Herbek from Haymarket
• Kevin Dietrich from New Market
• Max Most and Bryon Izzo from Staunton
• Cody Brown, Greg Waddell, Nick Adelberto Adalberto Santos, and Brad Roberts from Woodstock

Similar to the same way Bill James came up with the Cy Young Predictor, Baseball Prospectus, in this article from December 2001, analyzed the voting in the National League to look for similarities in how the MVPs are chosen by sportswriters, and what variables have more weight.

This is what the author, Chaim Bloom, found:

"Specifically, [Bloom's] NL MVP predictor assigns one point each for the following:

    * Leading the league in runs batted in.
    * Leading the league in batting average.
    * Leading the league in home runs.
    * Driving in 100 runs.
    * Having a .300 batting average.
    * Playing for a division- or league-winning team.
    * Playing an up-the-middle position for a division or league winner.

Total those points for all players; those with the most points are the candidates. If there's more than one candidate, sum their batting average, RBIs, and home runs, and add a bonus (15 points) for playing an up-the-middle position and/or playing for a division winner. That's it. That's going to give you your MVP."

Well, now- that's interesting.  Leading the league in RBIs, average, home runs, having a .300 average all work for our purposes, while driving in 100 runs will never work (of course, if a player in the Valley League ever does drive in 100 runs in 44 games, can we just agree that he's the MVP?), and playing for winning teams will have to wait until the end of the year.

(And the normal caveat applies here- RBIs usually have more to do with opportunities than actual ability, and batting averages can vary wildly. I would rather look at on-base percentage and slugging percentage, but this exercise is looking at historical voting by actual sportswriters.)

So what do we have in he Valley League? (Stats through July 2)

• Wiswall leads the league with 24 RBIs
• Wiswall leads the league with a .390 average
• Jefferson leads the league with 6 home runs
• Both of our candidates are hitting over .300

Winchester's Mickey Wiswall has 3 points, while Luray's Jeff Jefferson has 2.

Let's move to the next stage for our two candidates: totaling batting average, RBIs, and home runs:

• Wiswall: 390+4+24= 418
• Jefferson: 344+6+16= 366

This method causes a few players to just miss. The first is Waynesboro's Brandon Sizemore. He's hitting 361 with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs, and he's playing 2nd base, which would give him 397 points.  Woodstock's Cody Brown is hitting 386 with 0 home runs and 11 RBIs for a total of 397 points. Harrisonburg's Drew Johnson is hitting 368 with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs for a total of 385 points. However, none of these players lead the league in any of the main categories, so they didn't make the initial cut.

Therefore, our half season MVP is Mickey Wiswall!

Whew!  While this exercise is really only for fun, it does give us some insights into the top players in the league, as actual sportswriters would see the situation.

The Cy Young Predictor

While I was taking a mini-vacation, I had a thought: the season is a little over halfway finished, so who would win the Cy Young award and MVP for the first half? (Really- what else would I think about on vacation?!?)

I tackled the first question over the last few days. Luckily, Bill James has a formula for predicting who will win the Cy Young award, based on past voting results in the major leagues. A caveat: the journalists who vote for major league awards tend to overvalue the "counting" stats, like wins and saves (and home runs and RBIs for the hitters). On this site, I tend to downplay wins and saves and look at rate stats instead, like ERA, K/9, and BB/9. The following results are based on the following formula:

Cy Young Points: ((5 * IP/9) - earned runs) + (strikeouts/12) + (saves * 2.5) + shutouts + ((wins * 6) - (losses * 2)) + victory bonus

(I have dropped the victory bonus for my purposes)

Without further ado, here are the top pitchers according to the formula (ALL STATS ARE THROUGH JULY 1):

1. Adam Liberatore, Waynesboro - 45.89
2. Lance Baxter, Staunton- 37.56
3. Jared Dobbs, Waynesboro- 36.22
4. Andy Altemus, Waynesboro- 35.83
5. Kyle Cichy, Luray- 35.39
6. Justin Collop, Winchester- 34.28
7. Shawn Griffith, Fauquier- 31.28
8. Travis Smink, Luray- 30.89
9. Taylor Hill, Winchester- 29.83
10. Tyler Thornburg, Winchester- 29.06

Notice something through the top 10? All are from winning teams (see the over-reliance on wins and saves?).

11. Jon Jacobs, Fauquier- 28.67
12. Rob Whitley, Fauquier- 27.78
13. Andrew Salgueiro, Luray- 27.44
14. Ben Hildreth, Haymarket- 27.44
15. Alex Wimmers, Luray- 27.44
16. Robbie Andrews, Covington- 27.33
17. Andrew White, Winchester- 25.94
18. Mike Pierce, Covington- 23.72
19. Chris Court, Covington- 23.61
20. Daniel Gentzler, New Market- 21.89

A couple teams are not represented in the top 20. Here are the team leaders:

Harrisonburg: Justin Wood- 20.00
Front Royal: Tucker Pryor- 21.11
Woodstock: Brach Davis- 17.83

According to Bill James' formula, our first half Cy Young award winner is Adam Liberatore!

If anyone would like to see my excel spreadsheet with 75 pitchers, click:

Download cy_young_predicter_070108.xls

Waynesboro, Luray Among Top Summer League Teams

PG Crosschecker, a fun website for scouts and those of us interested in player development, lists the top 16 teams in all the summer leagues each week.  While this is a difficult exercise because of the different levels of competition in the different leagues, the list is informative about which teams are playing well within their leagues.

This week, Waynesboro is listed as #11, while Luray comes in at #15.  (Last week Winchester made the list.) 
To see the Valley League website release, click here.

To see the entire list on PG Crosschecker, click here.